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At the end of each year, thought-leaders voice their opinion on what they believe will be the “next big thing” in the media industry. End-of-year trends and predictions have become a tradition to most, and it’s definitely a tradition we look forward to. In fact, we’ve recently published our own list of?2020 predictions, specifically for publishers, as a follow up to our 2019 list.?

Ahora que estamos casi instalados en 2020, es un buen momento para reflexionar sobre lo más destacado de los últimos 12 meses. Como era de esperar, algunas tendencias tuvieron un impacto duradero y otras fueron una moda pasajera.

Due to our ever-growing industry, we know it’s only going to become increasingly difficult to predict outcomes with accuracy. Reviewing our?2019 digital trends?white paper didn’t change that, even if we were pretty spot-on with most of our forecast.?

So,?which trend did we get wrong in our 2019 predictions??Hint:?it’s one of our favorite topics.

Predicciones programáticas

As one of the most rapidly evolving areas of digital,?programmatic is unpredictable?by nature. Here’s what we mentioned in last year’s ‘2019 Digital Ad Trends’ white paper:

"Como era de esperar, la programática recibió un golpe a principios de este año cuando entró en vigor toda la fuerza del reglamento GDPR de la UE. Pero no tardó en recuperar terreno y seguir creciendo. En 2019, el 65% de los medios digitales serán programáticos. A medida que las empresas superan la confusión del GDPR en 2019 y más allá, una cosa está clara: programmatic es el nuevo tradicional."

Alright, so we weren’t?too?far off, and we wrote about many of these changes throughout the year, but we should elaborate on a few key statements.

Analicemos por qué.

Predicción frente a realidad: #1

What we said:??“Unsurprisingly, programmatic took a hit earlier this year when the full force of the EU’s GDPR regulation went into effect. But it didn’t take long to recover ground and continue growing.”

What happened:??While it did take a small hit post-GDPR and recover quickly, we can’t expect a lasting recovery for programmatic as we know it today. GDPR was the industry’s introduction to data privacy laws, which led to many others such as CCPA and ePrivacy.?

We’re now also faced with?internet browsers restricting?third party cookie tracking in?an effort to end ad profiling. Google and Apple put anti-tracking features in place early last year, along with Mozilla, who switched on Enhanced Tracking Protection (ETP) for users by default.?

With these restrictions in place,?third party cookies – and things like real-time bidding (RTB) – aren’t compliant?in most cases. It’s easy to see why programmatic, specifically RTB, may see a gradual decline in spend as 2020 progresses.

Predicción contra realidad: #2

What we said:??“In 2019, 65% of digital media will be programmatic.”

What happened:?While the future of programmatic has been uncertain,?it is not “dead”?as some have claimed – it’s simply evolving. In 2019,?69%?of digital media was programmatic, compared to the predicted 65%.?

There was also a shift from RTB transactions to?programmatic guaranteed campaigns. With PG campaigns, publishers sell the same premium inventory at the same price as their traditional direct campaigns.?PG is not reliant on cookies and 1st party data can be applied, solving for the industry’s latest issues.? Financial Times’ PG deals currently?account for 70%?of their programmatic ad revenue, up from 4% just two years ago.?

Predicción contra realidad: #3

What we said:?“As companies overcome GDPR confusion in 2019 and beyond, one thing is clear: programmatic is the new traditional.”

What happened:?As mentioned, 2019 brought a shift from RTB to Programmatic Guaranteed deals. PG is essentially a direct-sold campaign that is transacted through technology rather than the traditional method of buying and selling. It is?programmatic advertising in its simplest form.

Pricing perceptions are shifting as well, considering most publishers sell programmatic guaranteed?at the same rate as traditional direct, or higher. We asked six of our customers, located in the U.S. and U.K., to share a few programmatic guaranteed stats. All six confirmed their PG rates were equal to traditional direct, or higher, when selling the same products.

El año que viene

Al igual que en años anteriores, 2019 fue un año de cambio y transformación para la industria digital. Todavía persiste la incertidumbre sobre el futuro de la publicidad online, especialmente en lo que respecta a la programática. Lea nuestras predicciones para las tendencias de 2020 en nuestro libro blanco más reciente. ¿Qué predicciones audaces has hecho para el próximo año?


Lineup Systems is the world's leading provider of media sales technology, representing over 6,800 media brands globally, including Gannett/USA Today, New York Times and News Corp. Amplio is Lineup's multi- channel audience monetization solution that helps media companies realize their full reader revenue potential, using data-driven intelligence to engage, nurture and monetize readers with personalized offers that increase reader revenue and reduce churn. Adpoint is Lineup's end-to-end multi-channel media advertising sales solution that helps media companies streamline operations, make better use of data, increase efficiency and boost revenue.